Oscar Predictions 2011

Before the Oscar ceremony tonight, Sunday 27th February 2011, I'd thought I'd publish my predictions for the big night. Not only is it based upon my evaluation of each film up for an award, but on the recognition they've received so far (from the SAG awards, Golden Globes, Directors Guild) and on the political buzz that surrounds them (Oscar loves overlooked actors and performances of disabled true life folk, for example).

In addition (and as is tradition in other parts of the Internet), I'll chuck in my preferred winner, so I can credibly voice my indignation, come awards night.

BEST FILM
Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: Inception
Must Not Win: The Kids Are Alright (hey, I gave up after 20 minutes. Zzzzzz.)

BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Tom Hooper
Should Win: Darron Aronofsky (bold, original and fearless)
Must Not Win: David O Russell

BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Colin Firth (is there any doubt?)
Should Win: Colin Firth
Must Not Win: James Franco (he'd good, but not that good!)

BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Natalie Portman
Should Win: Natalie Portman
Must Not Win: Annette Benning (after Portman she's bizarrely next favorite to win!)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Geoffrey Rush (well deserved)
Should Win: Christian Bale
Must Not Win: Jeremy Renner (a great actor who does plays the same character in every movie)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Helena Bohnam Carter
Should Win: Melissa Leo or Hailee Steinfeld (both are stunning)
Must Not Win: Amy Adams (I feel cruel...Amy's great, but her co-star's better)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: Inception

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: The Social Network

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Toy Story 3
Should Win: Toy Story 3

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: Alexandre Desplat (The King's Speech)
Should Win: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (The Social Network)
Must Not Win: Alexandre Desplat (The King's Speech)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: I See the Light (from Tangled)
Should Win: If I Rise (from 127 Hours)

BEST ART DIRECTION
Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: The King's Speech

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: Roger Deakins (True Grit)
Should Win: Wally Pfister (Inception)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: Alice In Wonderland

BEST MAKEUP
Will Win: The Wolfman
Should Win: The Wolfman

BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: 127 Hours

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception

BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception
Must Not Win: Iron Man 2 / Hereafter

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: Absolutely no idea!!!

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will Win: Exit Through The Gift Shop

The Mechanic Goes Like Clockwork

God bless Jason Statham. If you want a contemporary bullshit action movie (that's a compliment not a complaint) then you either look to Luc Besson productions, or films starring The Stath. Like any past movie star who's worked in this genre (Stallone, Arnie, Van Damme, Chuck Norris, etc) you'll produce great movies, bad movies and some that are just plain average...but because of the formulaic nature of the genre and the low expectations the exploitative movies they are, they remain watchable due to the action contained within and the charisma of their lead actors.

The Mechanic, a remake of a 1972 Charles Bronson thriller, is an average film for Jason Statham...but thankfully, because of his very presence, it's always watchable and engaging. Simon West (he of Con Air) directs with a glossy flair and keeps the action and drama rolling even if it's all a little too familiar to those who've watched this kind of stuff all too often. Tony Goldwyn reprises his excellent sleezebag performance from Ghost and The 6th Day while Donald Sutherland adds some gravitas to proceedings.

The worry with Statham is that he could plummet into DVD oblivion if he makes one too many duds, but despite The Mechanic being a bit run of the mill, it's a sharply made action thriller that should keep The Stath's theatrical release status for a bit longer yet.

Crowe Escapes From The Flat Haggis

Paul Haggis is a much admired talent in Hollywood. He's directed intelligent thrillers like In The Valley Of Elah and the Oscar winnng Crash, he's the celbrated screenwriter of Million Dollor Baby and Flags Of Our Fathers, a savvy script doctor of the Bond films and the creator of the much loved Due South TV show. So why he decided to direct such a derivative and unremarkable thriller like The Next Three Days is something of a mystery. That's not to say that the film is bad, because in most ways it's a first class production....it's just that the story that this talented group of people gathered together to tell is nothing to get excited about.

Russell Crowe stars as a husband and father whose wife, Elizabeth Banks, gets prosecuted for first degree murder. After all attemps to appeal the decision fail, and Banks tries to take her own life, Crowe seeks advice from successful prison escapee (Liam Neeson in a neat cameo) on how to break the misses out and get away for good. It's esentially a caper movie with everything that entails; a lenghthy planning session, thing going wrong while executing the job and those unmentioned details of the plan that, when revealed, surprise and thrill the audience.

But it's all a little hollow, and lacking in any great character insights or any truly grand, sphincter puckering thrills. Escape by numbers.

Navigating Cameron's Sanctum

After directing the two biggest films of all eternity, James Cameron can now put his name to any old movie in an attempt to sell it to the public. So, thanks to the diving theme and thriller aspect of the story, Jim 'presents' to us Sanctum. It's a small scale disaster movie of a bunch of cave explorers and underground divers who get trapped in an immense network of tunnels when the monsoon season arrives days earlier than expected. With limited resources, varying degrees of experience, a fast flooding environment and the dangers that an unexplored cave network provides...the cast must try and navigate the threats until they reach the sea and escape.

It looks good, is well directed (especially the underwater stuff) and pushes all the correct disaster movie buttons (a variety of dangers, both natural and man made, that pick the cast off one by one). It's a shame that the script isn't up to much...the dialogue is dire...and the cast are largely weak and forgettable. Only Richard Roxburgh gets to shine as the hardened and experienced cave diver that might be pushing his team too hard. Despite the story being largely predictable, it does mess with audience expectations as to who has good motivations and who doesn't, and does a good job of reversing the roles of the 'good' and the 'bad' as the plot progresses.

The inescapable bottom line is that if you want to see the definitive caving thriller then watch Neil Marshall's The Descent. Even the first half of that movie, without the ravenous crawlers, has more memorable character moments and white knucke tension then Sanctum delivers in its entirity.

The (Morning) Glory Of Rachel McAdams

Coming from Bad Robot Productions, the home of Lost and the Star Trek reboot, I was hoping that the JJ Abrams backed Morning Glory would be a step up from the drab rom coms we've come to expect out of Hollywood recently. Alas, for the most part my expectations weren't met to the standards I'd been expecting, but there were still enough surprises contained within to make it worth the watch.

Morning Glory is a career comedy, much like The Devil Wears Prada, in which an ambitious twenty-something pursues a high profile industry job (in this case, producing an early monrning TV news/magazine programme) at the expense of her private life. It's fluffy, likable, fizzy and frothy with no real weight behind the characters and the industry they work in. Director Roger Michell makes the whole affair look classy, it moves along briskly and the whole film has that Bad Robot sheen of strong colours and lens flares over the credits. The cast are good, and I expected this to be to be a chance for Harrison Ford to get his comedic chops into a larger than life curmudgeon...but he's still too laid back and grumpy for his character to work completely. He should have take notes from Diane Keaton who can do lovable AND unlikable in the same scene.

There are a couple of saving graces. First off, while this has the spinal structure of a romcom, the romance aspects take a backseat. Instead the same romcom structure is transposed to the working relationship between producer Rachel McAdams and Harrison Ford...even going so far as one of them making a grand gesture as to the importance of their relationship in order to save it.

The other reason is leading lady Rachel McAdams herself. Like other raves about actresses in this blog (Emma Stone and Anna Faris come to mind), McAdams is an actress who deserves to be big, big, big. Although she's been around for a while in Mean Girls and The Hot Chick, I first saw her star quality opposite Vince Vaughan in The Wedding Crashers. She's cute, bubbly, full of energy, quirky, a smile to die for, unexpected and has a great range as an actress giving her the tools to hit the big time. Furthermore she possess a quality that a successful actress, particularly one working in comedy, that is essential in order to succeed...and that's an ability to not care if you look silly and just go for it. Julia Roberts, Sandra Bullock, Anne Hathaway...there's a reason why they're huge stars and that's it (well, they're pretty hot too). And if there's ever a showcase for an actress with mega wattage then it Morning Glory for McAdams. Forget her highly cut role in Sherlock Holmes or her quiet strength in State Of Play...if you want to see a real movie star, look no further than Morning Glory.

The Landis Comedy Murders

John Landis...once the king of the film comedy world with classics like Animal House, Trading Places and The Blues Brothers...is now something of a cult director whose comedy sensibilities will either confound and bore, or delight and amuse. Take the Landis directed Beverly Hills Cop III...on the surface it's a generic, unremarkable cop thriller...but if you're tuned into Landis' comic sensibility there's tons of well timed gags and character moments (that admittedly don't fit too snugly with the rest of that blockbuster franchise). Alas, because that sensibility is a rather daft and silly one, more common in a Road Runner cartoon than the latest American Pie sequel, many people just don't get it.

His work on Burke and Hare is afflicted with a similar silliness (great for me, not so much for the poor sods who don't get it) and it's compounded further by the fact that he's also dealing with a true story (which demands a degree of seriousness and respect) and in the horror genre (it's the story of a couple of murderers, after all.) With such liberal use of black humour, audiences may be unsure whether to laugh or not, but to be fair, the laughs are there. It's not all good news though...the script could be funnier, the central characters could be better defined and it's a little inconsistently paced.

But the cast are uniformly excellent, the photography and design are fantastically moody and Gothic (thanks to some Edinburgh location work) and it ends on a nicely judged, thoughtful note. Much like John Carpenter's The Ward last moth, this is not a return to classic form by any means, but it is a showcase for a talent which has still something worthy to express.

Probing Pegg In Paul

Ever since Nick Frost and Simon Pegg teamed up to give us the geek fuel antics of Spaced, Shaun Of The Dead and Hot Fuzz, audiences have been yearning for them to get together once again. While their latest film Paul isn't the third film in the 'cornetto' trilogy (since writer/director Edgar Wright isn't involved), in Superbad helmer Greg Molotta's capable hands it is a very funny science fiction comedy which confirms that the Frost/Pegg duo are are force to be reckoned with.

It helps, for me anyway, that the film is taken from the perspective of pop culture geeks and Brits who are of a similar age to myself. This combined with the fact it's from the UK's Working Title Productions, means the film has a very grounded British sensibility despite the U.S. setting and Yankee cast. The comedic tone is broader than the Edgar Wright collaborations and Paul is gleefully and liberally laced with swearing and profanity.

The cast is fantastic ferom Kristin Wigg's Godbotherer who get's liberated with her newfound view of a scientific world (thanks to alien, Paul), Seth Rogan riffs on his chilled-out, stoner image to amusing effect in his vocal performance as the title character and American actors Bill Hader, Justin Bateman and the brilliant Jeffery Tambour all chip in with some off-kilter characters. A consistently funny road movie with tons of laughs, Paul is well worth checking out.