Oscar Predictions 2010

I've not done this on the blog, but before the Oscar ceremony on Sunday March 7th, I'd thought I'd publish my predictions for the big night. Not only is it based upon my evaluation of each film up for an award, but on the recognition they've received so far (from the SAG awards, Golden Globes, Directors Guild) and on the political buzz that surrounds them (Oscar loves overlooked actors and performances of disabled true life folk, for example).

In addition (and as is tradition in other parts of the internet), I'll chuck in my preferred winner, so I can credibly voice my indignation, come awards night.

BEST FILM
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Inglorious Basterds (can you imagine the speech that Quentin would
deliver!)
Must Not Win: The Blind Side (Bullock's great, but don't get carried away)

BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Karhryn Bigelow
Should Win: James Cameron (the man's got vision)
Must Not Win: Lee Daniels

BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Jeff Bridges
Should Win: (I'll get back to you on that one)
Must Not Win: George Clooney (he's only playing himself...very well, of course)

BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Sandra Bullock
Should Win: Carey Mulligan
Must Not Win: Gabourey Sidibe (as good as Precious is, she's a bit 'one note')

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Christoph Waltz (no one came close, acting-wise, in 2009)
Should Win: Christoph Waltz
Must Not Win: Matt Damon (a great actor who does absolute bugger all in Invictus to
deserve this)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Mo'nique
Should Win: Mo'nique
Must Not Win: Maggie Gyllenhaal (just out of spite for replacing Katie in The Dark
Knight)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will Win: The Hurt Lock
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Win: Up In The Air
Should Win: In The Loop

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: Up
Should Win: Fantastic Mr Fox

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will Win: Up
Should Win: Up
Must Not Win: Avatar (average and derivative)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will Win: Absolutely No Idea!
Should Win: Ditto!

BEST ART DIRECTION
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Avatar

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Inglorious Basterds

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Nine
Should Win: ????

BEST MAKEUP
Will Win: Star Trek
Should Win: Star Trek

BEST FILM EDITING
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Avatar

BEST SOUND MIXING
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Star Trek

BEST SOUND EDITING
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: The Hurt Locker

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Avatar
Must Not Win: Anything else (as good as District 9 and Star Trek are they don't compare with the Na'vi and Pandora in Avatar. Besides, the only credible competition here, 2012, hasn't even been nominated!)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will Win: The White Ribbon